Retirement Stress-Test Simulator

Will your retirement survive the worst markets in history?

Run 10,000 simulations using real market crashes from 1950–2025 and see the probability your portfolio lasts through retirement.

75 Years of Historical Market Returns · 1950–2025
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10,000
Simulations Per Run
75
Years of Market Data
8
Historical Crash Scenarios
3
Asset Classes Modeled

Every view. Real probabilities.
Built for serious retirement planners.

RetireSure Simulator analyzes thousands of possible futures using real historical market data so you can see how your retirement plan performs under different market conditions.

Survival Rate & Spending Sensitivity
Survival Rate & Spending Sensitivity
See your survival rate alongside how small spending changes affect outcomes — your current scenario highlighted.
Allocation Sensitivity
Allocation Sensitivity
Compare 100% bonds vs. 100% stocks at a glance. Find the allocation that maximizes your survival rate.
Historical Crash Stress Tests
Historical Crash Stress Tests
Force your retirement to begin in the Dot-Com bust, 2008 crisis, 1970s stagflation, and five more worst-case scenarios.
Social Security Modeling
Social Security Modeling
Include your benefit and your spouse's — with COLA, claim-age flexibility, and bridge-period analysis.
Every tool a self-directed
retirement planner needs

Scenario Comparison

See how retiring 2 years early or 3–5 years later changes your survival rate. Dynamic "Retire at [age]" labels show the real tradeoffs at a glance.

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Portfolio Trajectories

Percentile bands show your median, 10th, and 90th percentile wealth path from retirement through your plan-to age. See the range of outcomes, not just the average.

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8 Historical Crash Stress Tests

Force your retirement to begin during the Dot-Com bust, 2008 Financial Crisis, 1970s Stagflation, and five more historical crashes. See how your plan holds up in the worst-case timing.

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Social Security Modeling

Include your benefit and your spouse's — with COLA adjustments, claim-age flexibility (62–70), and automatic bridge-period analysis showing the gap before SS kicks in.

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Spending & Allocation Sensitivity

See exactly how spending changes or allocation shifts affect your survival rate. Side-by-side bars show the impact of each dollar and each percentage point.

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Distribution Analysis

Histogram of 10,000 final portfolio values shows the full shape of your outcomes — not just a single number. See how many simulations failed and where the mass of results clusters.

Most retirement calculators miss the biggest risk.

Most retirement calculators assume smooth average returns.

Real markets do not behave that way.

A retirement plan that looks safe under average assumptions can fail if major market declines occur early in retirement.

This is known as sequence-of-returns risk.

RetireSure Simulator tests your plan against thousands of real historical market paths so you can understand your actual probability of success.

How It Works
Monte Carlo meets real market history. RetireSure Simulator does not rely on theoretical averages. Each simulation samples from actual annual returns for the S&P 500, 10-year Treasury bonds, and 3-month Treasury bills from 1950–2025.
1

Enter your retirement scenario

Portfolio value, retirement age, spending level, Social Security timing, and portfolio allocation.

2

Run 10,000 simulations

Each simulation samples from historical market returns to generate thousands of possible retirement outcomes.

3

See your survival probability

RetireSure Simulator calculates the percentage of simulations where your portfolio lasts through your full retirement horizon.

What if you retire right before a crash?
Sequence-of-returns risk can dramatically change retirement outcomes. RetireSure Simulator allows simulations to begin during major historical market crashes so you can see how your plan performs under the worst possible timing scenarios.
Dot-Com Crash
2000–2002
Tech bubble burst. S&P lost 49% over 3 years.
Financial Crisis
2008–2009
Worst crash since 1929. S&P down 55% peak to trough.
1970s Stagflation
1973–1974
Oil shock + high inflation. Spending rises AND portfolio falls.
2022 Rate Shock
2022
Stocks AND bonds crashed simultaneously.
Lost Decade Start
2000–2003
Four consecutive poor years. S&P flat for a decade after.
Black Monday
1987
S&P fell 33% in a single year including the Oct 19 crash.
Volcker Rate Shock
1981–1982
Fed raised rates to 20% to kill inflation. Bonds crushed.
Vietnam-Era Bear
1966–1968
Prolonged malaise. S&P lost 22%, rising inflation.

For educational and informational purposes only. RetireSure Simulator is a self-directed financial modeling tool. It does not provide personalized financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.

All results are hypothetical simulations derived from historical return data (1950–2025) and user-provided assumptions. Actual market returns, inflation, taxes, and future legislation may differ materially from historical patterns. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Before making financial decisions, consult a qualified financial professional. This tool does not provide personalized investment recommendations and does not act as a fiduciary. Not a registered investment adviser.